Will a Pakistani backed terrorist attack on India lead to nuclear war between India and Pakistan ?

It was 13th December, 2001. It was a calm and event less day at the national capital of India. It was around 11:45 am when reports of gun fire and huge blasts were being received from the venue- the power capital – The Parliament.  A group of Islamic militants had struck at the heart of the nation. They had successfully attacked the very stature of independent India. A massive operation to hunt down the perpetrators was launched by Indian forces, in which 9 brave souls made their ultimate sacrifice for the country. India from the start had raised its concern regarding the play of Pakistan’s ISI in the attacks.

After thorough investigations, India successfully proved the role of Pakistan in launching the attacks. The gunmen had received instructions from Pakistan and the operation was carried out under the guidance of Pakistani ISI agency. In response to the attack on 20th December, India mobilised its troops to Kashmir and Punjab and ordered its force to a war state. The 2001 mobilization is considered India’s largest military mobilisation, since 1971 Indo-Pakistani War.

Both states faced a very tense stand-off during the period. Only after a year, the conditions returned to normal.

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India and Pakistan are “Nuclear states”, that have an arsenal of around 300-350 nuclear war heads at their disposal. Pakistan Army is known to have a very weak structured hierarchy command. Every major terrorist attacks against India were a carefully formulated operation by Pakistan’s external spy agency – ISI. Indian agencies have been successful in establishing the Pakistani agenda behind every attack.  The terrorist themselves have been proved to be Pakistani citizens or the operation itself would have received substantial assistance from the ISI.

Pakistan has been globally labelled as an active sympathiser of the terrorist forces, which have been pushing to destabilise the peace process throughout the world. Pakistan on the other hand has shown little interest in dismantling the dreaded terrorist network. The power seat of US military – Pentagon has been warned by various think tanks about India on launching massive retaliatory strikes against Pakistan backed terrorist installations if there is no gradual decrease in terrorist activities.

Thinks tanks have also said ‘nuclear war’ erupting in the Asia is a very possible situation, if Pakistan responds with its ballistic missiles against a motivated India.

After establishing a nuclear arsenal, India pioneered the ‘No First Use’ policy.  Like always in contradictory, Pakistan has given no answers on the concerned issue leaving everyone to think they might use it first as their lethal attack.

In the recent past, India has adopted a very tough stand against terrorism. Further terrorist attacks will surely force the Indian government to sanction large scale retaliation attack against known ‘Terrorist Installations’ nested deep inside Pakistan. Pakistan has developed a module to co-operate with these terrorist groups to hinder India’s peace process, particularly in the disputed Kashmir region. The large scale attacks sanctioned by the Indian government can be easily considered by the counterpart as an ‘Act of War’.
Indian government may launch a massive and offensive attack using its Army and the SF (Special Forces). For largely subsiding India’s offensive, Pakistan forces may launch a counter offensive. Largely outnumbered and with a never acceptable defeat headed their way, Pakistan government may pull out its last option, a nuclear tipped missile that maybe launched towards India. Armed with state-of-the-art interceptors, India is bound to shoot down the incoming threat. If at all Indian forces do fail to intercept the missile and the strike is successful, India will start its preparation for launching a retaliatory strike. Charged with the operations of nuclear weapons, Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) would immediately order the preparation of its ballistic missiles for launch.

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The operators of the missiles are the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), which acts under the guidance of the NCA. The orders for the launch of the ballistic missiles are vested under the direct command of the Prime Minister. The PM will then in turn constitute the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). The CCS is constituted of Political Council and the Executive Council. CCS (Cabinet Committee on Security) is chaired by the Prime Minister and consists of Minister of Defence, Minister of Finance, Minister of Home affairs and Minister of External Affairs. The political wing is headed by the PM and receives inputs from the Executive council, which is headed by the National Security Advisor (NSA).  Once the NCA gives its nod for the launch, SFC will be ordered to launch nuclear tipped ballistic missiles against strategic targets deep inside Pakistan.

The retaliatory strikes against Pakistan will be launched from one of its three deterrence platforms. The most after sought deterrence platform will be submarines that can lurk close to Pakistan coasts. India is in the process of commissioning its first Nuclear Powered Ballistic Missile Submarine or simply a boomer, INS Arihant. Equipped with the technology to launch the K-12 or K-4 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), these ultimate war machines can annihilate Pakistan. India also operates the Jaguars under the SFC, these aircraft are capable of launching precision guided nuclear missiles. SFC also operates a much matured land based ballistic missile inventory, ranging from Agni-I to Agni-V; these missiles are capable enough of wiping Pakistan off the world map.

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